800-613-5110
05/06/2019
NightWatch
Special Report for 5/6 May 2019
Israel – Gaza Strip
Tension between the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and the Israelis escalated into two days of violent exchanges on 4 and 5 May, but quiet returned around daybreak on 6 May.
Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) fighters launched almost 700 rockets into southern Israel. Israel counter attacked with air and naval strikes; one targeted killing of a Palestinian leader and ground force reinforcements along the border of the Gaza Strip.
On the 5th, Prime Minister Netanyahu said he ordered the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to keep up massive strikes in response to rocket fire.
A Hamas delegate said it agreed to a ceasefire if the Israelis fulfilled their obligations, i.e., lift the siege of the Gaza Strip and lift sanctions.
The triggers. According to press accounts, tension began to rise on 3 May after two Palestinians were shot and killed. Later one Israeli soldier was killed and the IDF retaliated. Two Hamas militants were killed. And then the rocket attacks began on the 4th.
Fighting continued during the day on the 5th and into the early hours of 6 May. At 04:35 on the 6th, unidentified officials announced a ceasefire was arranged. At 07:00 the Israeli Home Front Command lifted all restrictions on Gaza border residents.
Israeli fighter jets and naval gunboats attacked 350 targets inside the Gaza Strip. The Israeli gunboats fired at shore targets. The Israel Defense Force (IDF) spokesman said the IDF struck rocket launchers, tunnel shafts and weapons manufacturing factories belonging to both Hamas and the Iranian-funded group Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
To punctuate the Iranian-connection, at 06:11 on the 5th, the IDF tweeted “We just targeted Hamed Ahmed Khudari, a Gazan terrorist responsible for transferring Iranian funds to Hamas & PIJ in Gaza, helping fund their rocket fire at Israelis.”
Box scores. The IDF tweeted box scores at 21:37 on the 5th.
In the past 48 hours:
690 rockets fired from Gaza at Israeli civilians
240 Iron Dome Aerial Defense System interceptions
210,000 children had school cancelled
4 Israeli civilians killed
In the past 24 hours:
We targeted 350 Islamic Jihad & Hamas targets including:
• rocket launch sites
• terror squads & operatives
• command and training centers
• weapon facilities
• observation posts
• military compounds
The outcome. At least 24 Palestinians and 4 Israelis were killed. More than 100 people were reported injured on both sides. Most of the rockets landed in empty fields. The IDF said only 35 hit any towns. A fragile ceasefire is in effect. Nothing has changed politically.
Comment: This was the worst flareup since last November’s exchanges. It seemed to be a prelude for Ramadan which began on 5 May. Owing to this exchange, Ramadan 2019 will be especially difficult for some Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
Considering the apparent size and intensity of this flareup, casualties were light. The Palestinian rockets were mostly junk. The Israelis were careful in their targeting.
The press accounts of the triggering events do not add up to 690 rockets fired. Worse clashes have occurred along the Gaza Strip borders without escalation on this scale.
We judge Hamas and PIJ were primed to escalate. For one thing, they dominated the news for 48 hours. Coverage of the flare up knocked off the air reports of the US mediated peace plan. That does not seem coincidental.
Tactically, Hamas and PIJ tested their ability to saturate the Iron Dome in the south again. Iron Dome defeated 34% of the rockets, but the poor quality of the rockets undermined the entire effort.
The Israelis seemed surprised by the rocket attacks, but that might have been part of the deception plan. Once the rockets started flying, the IDF knew where and what to attack with precision. That suggests the Israelis knew of the buildup of rocket stocks but did not know the timing of the attacks. The inference is compelling that the Israelis laid a trap for the hotheads in Hamas and PIJ.
An important, and underreported, aspect of the flare up is Iranian involvement. This has received little attention. An IDF statement attributed the rockets to Iranian funding.
The Iranian connection also was mentioned in connection with the targeted killing of Khudari. Most coverage commented on the rarity of targeted killings, not the target’s Iranian connection.
Not so the IDF. The IDF tweeted, “Transferring Iranian money to Hamas & the PIJ doesn’t make you a businessman. It makes you a terrorist.”
We judge that the Israeli response was a component of the larger Israeli strategy to thwart Iranians inroads on Israel’s borders. The Israeli counterattacks sent a strong message to Iran that the Netanyahu government will not tolerate Iranian meddling in the Gaza Strip. Its agents will be eliminated, and the resources Iran sends to or funds in the Gaza Strip will be wasted.
End of NightWatch Special Report for 5 May.